Contrary to Popular Belief, Trump Grew Support for GOP

Contrary to popular belief: The GOP gained support under Trump

Anecdote:  Trump would have won the 2020 election if he hadn't turned off so many Republican voters.  

The above anecdote was pushed by the media and many people believe(d) it because they know of a person or persons who voted for Trump in 2016 and didn't do so in 2020.   Anecdotal information is powerful and often has undue influence because of its personal nature -- however, it is often not reflective of reality.

As the image at the top of the page shows, more people in Pennsylvania registered Republican than registered as Democrats since 2016.   The GOP  narrowed the registration gap by 200,000 over the last four years, with a net of gain of nearly 134K voters coming by virtue of Democrats who were moving to Republican in droves (D to R, third column).   Conversely, the movement of Republicans to Democrat (R to D, second column) was under half the size of the Democratic migration. 

Contrary to popular belief --  and the extra large megaphones provided to the Never Trumpers -- President Trump turned more Democrats into Republicans in the Keystone State after coming down the escalator 2015.  

Registration trends were similar in the other battleground states too (hat tip, SK).   

But surely that can't be right because all the country heard for the last four years was that Trump was a racist, a misogynist, and a homophobe.  And so were half of his supporters (see Hillary Clinton 2016).

How did the media smear campaign against Trump work out?

Trump received the largest percentage of non-white votes for a Republican since Nixon in 1960 and improved by four percentage points over his 2016 performance.  Trump did especially well in improving his performance with African American men and women, increasing by 4 and 5 percent respectively.   And he also doubled his support in the gay community.

The increase in GOP registration and increase in minority votes shouldn't really be that surprising considering that 60% of the country has little to no confidence in the media.  Only 10% of Republicans trust the media therefore the media messaging has little to no impact on 90% of the GOP electorate.     

Interestingly, 27% of Democrats also fall into the little to no trust category which may help explain the figures shown earlier of Democrats shifting to the GOP.

In addition to the net gain of support from Democrats who switched parties, Trump and the GOP outgained the Democrats with non-affiliated voters in Pennsylvania  since 2016, although the trend was downward in 2020.  64% of Independents have little to no trust in the media according to Gallup.

   

More PA Dems crossed over to vote for Trump

While the Democrats in Pennsylvania held a 4.2 million to 3.5 million registration advantage on election day, they also had a greater number of inactive voters on the rolls.  After subtracting away ineligible voters, the difference between the two parties on election day was only about one-half million voters (529,510).

Working under the unrealistic assumption that all voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 election stayed true to their party, the anecdotal argument that the GOP voters abandoned Trump is soundly defeated.   

Trump received 100.8% of the GOP registered voters, while Biden was received 89.1%.  Of course, Trump getting over 100% means there were crossovers -- and Trump got more of them in PA according to the raw numbers.

 

Exit polling by CNN showed that Trump and Biden maintained about the same percentage of loyalty among their parties. It was 91% for Trump and 92% for Biden.

Objective and non-objective observers (e.g. Michael Moore) alike understand that CNN polling data disfavors Trump and is overly favorable to Trump's opponents.  Moore suggested that polling margins be cut in half based on the phenomenon that Trump supporters are always undercounted.  

For example, the Real Clear Politics average in Iowa showed Trump with a two-point advantage on election day.  Following Moore's math, Trump's advantage should have been four points.   Trump won Iowa by 8 points.

While Moore is correct that CNN polling is biased in favor of Biden, that makes Sleepy Joe's win all the more improbable in Pennsylvania.  

With 7% of Democrats voting for Trump while 8% of Republicans voting for Biden, the statistics disadvantaged Biden much more than it did Trump in mail-in voting because Democrats had mailed in 1.7 million ballots while the GOP mailed in 623K.

Democrats voting for Trump = 119K

Republicans voting for Biden=  50K

Net Gain for Trump               =  69K

Biden was effected more by the disloyal voter problem in Pennsylvania than Trump.  

The statistics tell the story.  

Next:  Mail-In Ballot Math Doesn't Add Up for Biden

Ray Blehar,  March 21, 2021, 11:15 AM EDT