President Trump's tweet claiming serious monkey business in the election return data was likely based on information from theDonald.win web-site, excerpted below:
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Dominion Voting Systems :
Pennsylvania : Switched : 220,883 Lost Votes : 941,248
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Based on the following analysis, the switch of 220,833 mail-in votes is highly probable.
Here is the election data for mail-in votes as of 7:46 AM today (11/13/2020):
As you can see above, Biden gets 100% support from his party's in mail in votes and then gets another 11% from other sources. Expanding on this simple, but unrealistic scenario, here's what happens when Others cast their mail in ballots.
Trump gets no mail-in votes while Biden receives 257,200 and Jorgenson receives 16,360. Meanwhile, 23,294 votes don't register for any candidate.
Impossible.
Next, is a scenario where Trump gets 91% loyalty and Biden 92%, based on exit polling. In the scenario, the Disloyal are added to Other party to create Outside Vote Potential. The results show Biden at 117% of his Outside Vote Potential.
Impossible.
In the next scenario, Biden and Trump loyalty are set to 93%. Under this scenario, Biden still performs above his potential (116%) with Outside Party Voters while Trump is barely getting any support from Disloyal Democrats or Others.
Not possible.
Next, a scenario that ignores Pennsylvania's Mail-In vote results and uses exit polling data percentages and loyalty percentages was performed, holding at 93% loyalty. Also, in this scenario disloyal voters break at around 75% for the opposite party candidate.
Trump gains 201,275 votes while Biden loses 206,798 in this scenario.
Also, the data in the last scenario actually makes sense. There is a large pool of Disloyal Democrats for Trump to add to this Loyal voters. Biden's pool of Disloyal Trump supporters is smaller. And the ADJUSTED Mail In Votes numbers now show Trump gains from correcting the votes from Others and Disloyals, while Biden's numbers are offset.
Conclusion: A vote switch of 220,000 is highly probable.
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Sources:
https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
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