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| PA's 2020 Election Results Don't Make Sense (Analysis & graphics by Seth Keshel) |
A picture is worth a thousand words and the "pictures" in this post get to the heart of why Pennsylvania's 2020 presidential election results should be forensically audited. The results defy nearly every statistic that predicts election outcomes -- especially voter registration trends.
After Trump won the GOP nomination in 2016, the Democrats have lost ground in registering new voters and keeping voters loyal. The graphics on the left show registration and the graphics on the rights show the election results
2016
Top Left: In 2016, the GOP gained on Democrats in party registration with the Dem's losing about 3 percentage points in the state. Many of these voters were blue collar Democrats and Independents moving toward the populist candidate, Donald Trump. 60 of 67 counties trended toward the GOP in registrations in 2016.
Top Right: As a result, Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, beating Hillary Clinton by approximately 44,000 votes and besting Romney's 2012 performance in 62 of 67 counties.
2020
Bottom Left: In 2020, Democrats again lost another 3 points and you can see an already predominantly red Keystone State getting redder. Trump grew registration in 60 of 67 counties, including Philadelphia and the advantage was an astounding 21:1 ratio.
Bottom Right: Trump gained over 400,000 votes from his performance in 2020, demonstrating a great voter turn out effort. However, despite all this positive growth, Trump somehow lost ground in 47 of 67 counties. Another improbable statistic was that Joe Biden somehow bested Clinton's 2016 performance by an amazing 531,788 votes for an eventual winning margin of 80,555 votes
Registration trends are the best indicator of election performance as explained in this video (from former military intelligence officer, Seth Keshel).
Below are the last five elections in Pennsylvania and all but 2020 correlate almost exactly with registration gains and losses. From 2004 to 2008, Democrats gained 7 points in registration and it translated to an Obama win by 10%. In 2012, after four years of Obama, voters began to narrowly move away and register GOP. That translated to a narrower Obama win of 5.4%. The GOP picked up 2.8 points from 2012 to 2016 -- that that pushed Trump past Clinton by a narrow margin. The GOP repeated the registration domination and cut another 3% from the Democrat advantage. That should have translated to a 3-5% win for Trump.....
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| Statistical analysis & graphics by Seth Keshel |
...but that margin didn't materialize and Biden allegedly reversed the trend.
Many have claimed that the 2020 election was an anomaly or unprecedented because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the increase in absentee voting.
Okay, let's go with that reason.
Biden's win in Pennsylvania is mathematically improbable based on the number of absentee ballots returned by political party and voter sentiment.
Yes, you read that correctly. Democrats didn't return enough absentee votes to overcome Trump's election day lead.
Trump had a 1.3 millon vote advantage after election day. In order for Biden to win, he needed to get 76% of the remaining 2.63 million ballots. Democrats mailed in 64% of the remaining ballots and independents pitched in another 10%. That means that Biden had to get 100% of both Democrats and Independents -- plus pull away Trump voters to win.
That kind of domination in Pennsylvania is impossible based voter preferences.
Polling across the board showed Biden losing 7% of Democrats (120,000 votes). Trump voters were almost as loyal, with 8% defecting to Biden (about 50,000), so Trump defections couldn't make up for disloyal Democrats.
Independents (Other) split about 52-44 for Biden -- nowhere near the 100% needed.
When all those numbers are put into a spreadsheet, you see how the absentee voting in PA should have turned out. Note: Libertarians and minor party voters were not included in the polling.
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| Analysis by Ray Blehar |
The yellow highlighted box shows that Biden's absentee total should drop by about 189.5K. Trump should gain about 215K votes (from the Biden defectors & independents).
But the most telling statistic in the table might be the Other total of 35,259 votes.
While the media and some Pennsylvania government officials claimed that the absentee ballots advantage for Biden resulted a blue wave or a blue shift, the time series data for the election returns refutes those claims.
The timeline actually shows a gradual chipping away of Trump's lead from the subtraction of votes from Trump and the other presidential candidates (Hawkins, Jorgensen, et al).
Yes, you read that correctly. Subtracted votes.
Reviewing Pennsylvania's statewide absentee voting results, the highlighted block shows that the average for three of the four Green Party candidates in the statewide races is 34,120. That number is remarkably similar to the Other absentee votes in the presidential race (35,529) when polling factors were applied. However, the Green Party presidential candidate, Howie Hawkins, got less than 453 absentee votes.
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| Edison Research reported 453 total absentee write-in votes for Pennsylvania. The counties did not make separate reports for in-person and absentee votes. All Pennsylvania absentee write-in were assigned to How Hawkins to err on the side of the state. |
Something definitely went wrong.
The Green Party collected over 5,000 signatures in an attempt to qualify Hawkins to be on the ballot. Hawkins should have received around 5,000 votes --- at a minimum. However, when the other Greens are getting over 30,000 absentee votes, how can it be explained that these voters decided not to vote for Hawkins?
In another numerical coincidence, Biden's official winning margin in Pennsylvania was about 80,000 votes.
Looking at the total votes in the presidential race, you see the Green Party presidential candidate has a meager 611 votes (based on reports from the counties) while the other candidates average 77,814 votes.
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| *610 votes are based on the election returns from the individual Pennsylvania counties. |
Hawkins was a write-in candidate. While write-ins don't do as well as those on listed on the ballot, this disparity is abnormal.
A write-in ballot is sent to adjudication before it can be counted, therefore it is almost certain that the system was not counting (adjudicating) the write-in votes correctly. The statewide write-in total confirms the problem.
Pennsylvania reported just 7,672 write-in votes in 2020 -- compared to over 50,000 in 2016.
Of the 7,672 write-in votes, only 453 were by absentee ballot.
453 absentee write-in votes out of 2.63 million absentee ballots?
Pennsylvania needs to perform a forensic audit.
Call and/or email Bryan Cutler, Seth Grove, Jake Corman and Kerry Benninghoff and demand it.
For more about forensic audits go here
-- Ray Blehar, June 15, 2021 and 12:50 PM EDT
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